Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.21103e-07          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.37979e-07          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   9.45125e-09          47          53           0           0           0        B1.1
est. ISN   =            12          21          58          19           2           0        B2.9
 
together                            46.00       47.75        5.75        0.50        0.00     B1.1
 
realized                                                                                      B1.3