Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.11660e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.77482e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   5.24651e-08           9          79          11           1           0        B5.7
est. ISN   =             9          37          46          15           2           0        B1.6
 
together                            40.50       51.25        7.50        0.75        0.00     B1.5
 
realized                                                                                      B6.4