Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.05284e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.48741e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.54089e-08          22          78           0           0           0        B1.6
est. ISN   =             9          37          46          15           2           0        B1.6
 
together                            43.75       51.00        4.75        0.50        0.00     B1.3
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)