Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.05735e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.19735e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.84117e-08          17          83           0           0           0        B2.0
est. ISN   =             8          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            45.75       51.00        3.25        0.00        0.00     B1.1
 
realized                                                                                      B1.5