Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.39860e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.01973e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   3.42291e-08          11          88           1           0           0        B3.7
est. ISN   =            11          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            37.25       56.50        5.75        0.50        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                      B3.0