Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.29395e-07          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.12400e-07          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.28586e-08          35          65           0           0           0        B1.3
est. ISN   =             7          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            50.50       46.25        3.25        0.00        0.00   < B1.0 (no flare)
 
realized                                                                                      B2.3