Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.81294e-06          28          69           3           0           0        B2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.00582e-05          12          77          11           0           0        B4.6
GOES Xray  =   6.51235e-08           7          70          22           1           0        B6.9
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            24.50       64.00       11.25        0.25        0.00     B3.9
 
realized                                                                                      C2.0