Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.97024e-07          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.61100e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   2.33036e-08          17          83           0           0           0        B2.5
est. ISN   =             2          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            46.00       50.75        3.25        0.00        0.00     B1.1
 
realized                                                                                      B1.6