Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.73360e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.53324e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   3.64325e-08          11          88           1           0           0        B4.0
est. ISN   =             3          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            44.50       52.00        3.50        0.00        0.00     B1.3
 
realized                                                                                      B2.9