Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.76821e-06          46          51           3           0           0        B1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.78588e-06          15          77           8           0           0        B3.6
GOES Xray  =   1.61627e-07           1           6          77          16           0        C3.4
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            28.00       43.75       24.25        4.00        0.00     B2.8
 
realized                                                                                      C1.0