Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.68912e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.47953e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   3.25828e-08          11          88           1           0           0        B3.4
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            39.00       54.75        5.75        0.50        0.00     B1.6
 
realized                                                                                      B4.0