Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.29579e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.54055e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   2.18114e-08          16          84           0           0           0        B2.4
est. ISN   =            13          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            38.00       56.50        5.25        0.25        0.00     B1.4
 
realized                                                                                      B1.8