Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.21135e-05          11          70          19           0           0        B5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.47736e-05           5          57          36           2           0        B8.6
GOES Xray  =   1.68623e-07           1           5          78          16           0        C3.7
est. ISN   =            22           8          54          34           4           0        B6.5
 
together                             6.00       46.75       41.75        5.50        0.00     B9.4
 
realized                                                                                      C4.3