Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.17228e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.85341e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   3.93090e-08           8          89           3           0           0        B4.4
est. ISN   =            19          15          59          23           3           0        B3.6
 
together                            34.75       57.00        7.50        0.75        0.00     B2.1
 
realized                                                                                      B3.7