Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.84435e-06          44          53           3           0           0        B1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.85932e-06          17          75           7           1           0        B3.2
GOES Xray  =   1.08273e-07           2          25          70           3           0        C1.4
est. ISN   =             8          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            28.25       48.50       22.25        1.00        0.00     B2.8
 
realized                                                                                      C1.1