Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.23356e-05           5          27          61           7           0        C1.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.24597e-05           3          23          68           6           0        C1.7
GOES Xray  =   1.61937e-07           1           5          78          16           0        C3.5
est. ISN   =            15          19          62          17           2           0        B2.8
 
together                             6.75       29.50       56.00        7.75        0.00     C1.5
 
realized                                                                                      C7.3