Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.05675e-06          40          58           2           0           0        B1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.97511e-06          18          76           5           1           0        B3.1
GOES Xray  =   1.14030e-07           2          19          73           6           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =            21          12          52          33           3           0        B6.5
 
together                            18.00       51.25       28.25        2.50        0.00     B4.2
 
realized                                                                                      C1.8