Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.10293e-05           9          72          19           0           0        B5.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.30301e-05           5          58          36           1           0        B7.9
GOES Xray  =   1.00562e-07           1          29          68           2           0        C1.4
est. ISN   =            24           8          54          33           5           0        B6.5
 
together                             5.75       53.25       39.00        2.00        0.00     B8.1
 
realized                                                                                      C5.7