Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.06728e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.37689e-07          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   5.12861e-08           9          80          10           1           0        B5.6
est. ISN   =            15          19          62          17           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            36.00       55.50        7.75        0.75        0.00     B1.9
 
realized                                                                                      C1.3