Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.27182e-05          10          69          21           0           0        B6.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.63390e-05           5          46          43           6           0        B9.9
GOES Xray  =   1.24947e-07           1          11          81           7           0        C1.9
est. ISN   =            15          19          62          17           2           0        B2.8
 
together                             8.75       47.00       40.50        3.75        0.00     B8.7
 
realized                                                                                      C2.6