Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.05613e-06          30          67           3           0           0        B2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.93740e-06          14          75          11           0           0        B4.4
GOES Xray  =   8.29657e-08           5          55          37           3           0        B8.5
est. ISN   =            18          18          59          20           3           0        B3.2
 
together                            16.75       64.00       17.75        1.50        0.00     B4.7
 
realized                                                                                      C2.5