Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.41956e-07          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.19995e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   6.04211e-08           6          74          19           1           0        B6.5
est. ISN   =             3          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            43.25       48.50        8.00        0.25        0.00     B1.4
 
realized                                                                                      B3.3