Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.15143e-05          10          71          19           0           0        B5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.53030e-05           4          52          41           3           0        B9.5
GOES Xray  =   2.34915e-07           1           1          60          33           5        C6.7
est. ISN   =             6          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            16.25       41.25       32.25        9.00        1.25     B7.5
 
realized                                                                                      C1.9