Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.03036e-05           2          35          59           4           0        C1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.79670e-05           2           8          81           8           1        C2.6
GOES Xray  =   1.15974e-07           2          16          75           7           0        C1.7
est. ISN   =            25           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                             3.25       28.50       61.75        6.25        0.25     C1.5
 
realized                                                                                      C4.3