Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.54889e-05           8          46          43           3           0        B9.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.95896e-05           5          29          61           5           0        C1.4
GOES Xray  =   2.08520e-07           1           0          72          24           3        C4.6
est. ISN   =            22           8          54          34           4           0        B6.5
 
together                             5.50       32.25       52.50        9.00        0.75     C1.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.0