Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.11906e-06          39          59           2           0           0        B1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.90076e-06          19          76           4           1           0        B2.8
GOES Xray  =   1.09751e-07           2          23          72           3           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =            25           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                            16.75       53.25       27.50        2.50        0.00     B4.0
 
realized                                                                                      C3.4