Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.02225e-05           2          35          59           4           0        C1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.62701e-05           1           6          81          12           0        C2.8
GOES Xray  =   1.83085e-07           1           2          83          13           1        C3.6
est. ISN   =            29           7          48          38           7           0        B7.4
 
together                             2.50       23.00       65.25        9.00        0.25     C2.1
 
realized                                                                                      C3.8