Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.59171e-06          28          69           3           0           0        B2.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.06253e-06          16          77           7           0           0        B3.7
GOES Xray  =   1.50294e-07           1           7          82          10           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =            38           6          50          37           7           0        B8.8
 
together                            12.75       50.75       32.25        4.25        0.00     B5.9
 
realized                                                                                      C1.5