Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.97667e-05           1           4          65          29           1        C4.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.14153e-05           1           2          57          38           2        C7.7
GOES Xray  =   2.49435e-07           1           0          40          50           9        M1.2
est. ISN   =            56           2          19          62          16           1        C2.7
 
together                             1.00        6.50       56.00       33.25        3.25     C6.4
 
realized                                                                                      M4.4