Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.10719e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.76407e-06          49          49           2           0           0        B1.0
GOES Xray  =   6.62138e-08           6          69          24           1           0        B7.0
est. ISN   =            51           1          17          68          13           1        C2.2
 
together                            27.50       45.00       23.75        3.50        0.25     B4.3
 
realized                                                                                      B8.8