Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.32220e-05          12          65          21           2           0        B6.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.82752e-05           5          34          55           6           0        C1.2
GOES Xray  =   1.50978e-07           1           7          83           9           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =            28           7          54          32           7           0        B6.3
 
together                             6.25       40.00       47.75        6.00        0.00     C1.1
 
realized                                                                                      C3.8