Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.86006e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.03703e-06          43          55           2           0           0        B1.3
GOES Xray  =   7.79705e-08           6          63          28           3           0        B8.0
est. ISN   =            25           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                            27.75       54.25       15.75        2.25        0.00     B3.4
 
realized                                                                                      B6.6