Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.82387e-06          28          69           3           0           0        B2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.32246e-06          15          75          10           0           0        B3.8
GOES Xray  =   1.22577e-07           1          13          80           6           0        C1.7
est. ISN   =            24           8          54          33           5           0        B6.5
 
together                            13.00       52.75       31.50        2.75        0.00     B5.7
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7