Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.12227e-06          29          68           3           0           0        B2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.02111e-05          13          75          12           0           0        B4.9
GOES Xray  =   1.25387e-07           1          10          82           7           0        C1.8
est. ISN   =            20          13          57          27           3           0        B4.6
 
together                            14.00       52.50       31.00        2.50        0.00     B5.7
 
realized                                                                                      B6.2