Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.00518e-05          10          79          10           1           0        B4.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.28650e-05           5          61          33           1           0        B7.9
GOES Xray  =   2.04161e-07           1           0          71          26           2        C4.6
est. ISN   =            20          13          57          27           3           0        B4.6
 
together                             7.00       49.50       35.25        7.75        0.50     B8.1
 
realized                                                                                      C1.6