Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.45405e-06          40          58           2           0           0        B1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.87177e-06          17          75           7           1           0        B3.2
GOES Xray  =   8.76001e-08           2          48          47           3           0        C1.0
est. ISN   =            14          18          64          16           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            19.25       61.25       18.00        1.50        0.00     B3.7
 
realized                                                                                      C1.6