Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.20894e-05           1           3          78          18           0        C3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.80091e-05           2           8          81           8           1        C2.6
GOES Xray  =   1.79108e-07           1           1          83          14           1        C3.6
est. ISN   =            12          21          58          19           2           0        B2.9
 
together                             6.25       17.50       65.25       10.50        0.50     C2.5
 
realized                                                                                      C7.4