Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.71012e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.96119e-06          29          70           0           1           0        B2.0
GOES Xray  =   5.62483e-08           8          76          15           1           0        B5.9
est. ISN   =             6          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            35.75       57.50        6.25        0.50        0.00     B2.0
 
realized                                                                                      B3.1