Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.25518e-06          38          60           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.13425e-06          16          76           8           0           0        B3.6
GOES Xray  =   1.04204e-07           1          27          69           3           0        C1.4
est. ISN   =             7          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            26.50       50.75       22.00        0.75        0.00     B2.9
 
realized                                                                                      B5.8