Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.82650e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.89581e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   5.49031e-08           8          77          14           1           0        B5.8
est. ISN   =            13          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            36.00       54.75        8.75        0.50        0.00     B1.9
 
realized                                                                                      B5.6