Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.26535e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.74491e-06          32          67           1           0           0        B1.8
GOES Xray  =   6.99745e-08           7          67          26           0           0        B7.3
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                            27.50       60.75       11.00        0.75        0.00     B2.6
 
realized                                                                                      B7.3