Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.26163e-07          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.28961e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.02558e-08          46          54           0           0           0        B1.1
est. ISN   =            17          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                            44.75       49.25        5.25        0.75        0.00     B1.2
 
realized                                                                                      B1.7