Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.20279e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.06961e-06          26          72           1           1           0        B2.1
GOES Xray  =   5.16204e-08           9          79          11           1           0        B5.7
est. ISN   =            18          18          59          20           3           0        B3.2
 
together                            27.00       63.50        8.25        1.25        0.00     B2.8
 
realized                                                                                      B6.6