Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.14978e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.75023e-06          32          67           1           0           0        B1.8
GOES Xray  =   1.48080e-07           1           6          79          14           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =            11          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            27.50       43.75       24.75        4.00        0.00     B2.8
 
realized                                                                                      C1.4