Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.07174e-07          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.80099e-07          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.60408e-08          18          82           0           0           0        B1.8
est. ISN   =            19          15          59          23           3           0        B3.6
 
together                            37.25       55.25        6.75        0.75        0.00     B1.4
 
realized                                                                                      B1.5