Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.21856e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.19401e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   3.79349e-08          11          87           2           0           0        B4.0
est. ISN   =            13          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            36.75       57.25        5.75        0.25        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)