Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.07980e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.77753e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   4.60513e-08           9          85           5           1           0        B5.2
est. ISN   =            15          19          62          17           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            36.00       56.75        6.50        0.75        0.00     B1.9
 
realized                                                                                      B5.0