Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.38800e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.55342e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.24582e-07           1          11          81           7           0        C1.9
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            42.00       32.75       23.50        1.75        0.00     B1.5
 
realized                                                                                      B5.7