Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.31501e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.93759e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   3.06254e-08          12          87           1           0           0        B3.2
est. ISN   =            20          13          57          27           3           0        B4.6
 
together                            35.25       56.00        8.00        0.75        0.00     B2.0
 
realized                                                                                      B3.3