Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.42852e-06          52          45           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.10930e-06          26          72           1           1           0        B2.1
GOES Xray  =   1.13986e-07           2          19          73           6           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            27.25       46.75       23.75        2.25        0.00     B3.1
 
realized                                                                                      B9.5